The Trends of Greenhouse Gas Emission for Japanese Electric Utility Post Kyoto Protocol
Jeff Huang1, Ken Nagasaka2
1Jeff Huang, Department of Electrical and Electronic, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo Japan.
2Ken Nagasaka, Department of Electrical and Electronic, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo Japan.
Manuscript received on March 01, 2012. | Revised Manuscript received on March 26, 2012. | Manuscript published on April 30, 2012. | PP: 225-229 | Volume-1 Issue-4, April 2012 | Retrieval Number: D0361041412/2012©BEIESP
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Japan was on track achieve the Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target defined under the Kyoto Protocol. But what will be happen after Post Kyoto Protocol, especially by including the impact of devastating March 11, 2011 Earthquake (311 Earthquake) in northeast coast of Japan remained unclear. This paper will firstly describe the current situation of GHG emission and reduction target for Japanese electric utility industry. Followed by introduced the technique of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast trend of the electricity consumption and GHG emission in Japan, with and without the impact of 311 Earthquake. In the conclusion, we analyze the challenges faced by Japanese electric utility industry regarding the issue of GHG emission reduction Post Kyoto Protocol. According to the simulation result, decrease in electricity consumption coupled with the large increase in nuclear energy to be introduce into Japanese electricity generation, the GHG emission level is expected to significantly decline from 2012-2020. The electricity consumption level in 2020 will be 1% higher than 2010 level but the GHG emission is 3% lower accordingly. If we included the impact of 311 Earthquake into the simulation, the GHG emission generated by Japanese electric utility industry will reach to 656 million metric tons CO2 in 2020. This is 311.4 million metric tons in excess of the forecast without the impact of the 311 Earthquake. This large increase amount will create a big pressure and challenge for Japanese electric utility in regard of emission reduction Post Kyoto Protocol.
Keywords: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission, Post Kyoto Protocol, Emission Reduction, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Network (ANN).